Steven returns for another economic update to cover the important scenarios that are unfolding all around us. Gold has reached another milestone with paper futures moving above 1800. Whether there will be a run at the all time highs from 2011 in the near term remains to be seen, but the markets will be taking cues from broader social and political developments. The reaction to the current disorder is providing more evidence that the Overton window has been mismanaged by the left. There is now a full court press on American institutions without buy in from a majority of independent Americans. What the fullness of the push back will lead to remains to be seen, and we pray that it does not devolve into further violence. Thanks for joining us for another economics update!
Prepper Broadcasting Network
On the Objective
Transcript (audio to speech tool used, please pardon any errors): Ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters. Welcome back. This is Stephen man King. I am the host of the, on the objective podcast and I am pleased to be bringing you another economics update in partnership with prepper broadcasting network. First thing to check in on is the precious metals. Here. We are seeing gold futures on the paper markets trading above $1,800. This is going to be welcome news for people who have continued to hold tight in the precious metal space.
Silver is lagging behind. It was almost at $19 right now, it’s trading at the middle point of the 18 handle. So we’re looking at stocks as well. And we’re seeing that the continuation of the primary narratives is what people are focused on. When we see additional news about potential economic shutdown, vis-a-vis a second wave of Corona virus. Then the markets will go down. When we see news about the alleviation of those measures or central bank action, the markets are going to go up.
So we’re in a situation where the zombie markets continue, but there is still some reality that we have to encounter that we have to deal with just because genuine true fundamental value is not being represented. Doesn’t mean that we can simply ignore the situation that’s going on. It would, of course informed the way that we assess the investment opportunities in terms of the profile that we’re looking at.
But right now, if you are in a strong position, there are plenty of different opportunities. If you are able to have access to making investments in companies that need capital in distressed assets and those sorts of things, if you’ve been making your percent returns by playing high flying tech stocks, then you have continued to do very well. If you have held tight in cash and in hedge assets, then things have gone, all right, depending on the way that you have situated yourself.
But as we proceed deeper and deeper into the summer, and as the narratives about a discontent and racial tension and the election come to the forefront of everyone’s conscience, we are going to find ourselves in a scenario that continues to be event driven, and you can handicap things based on the market. You can try and use that as signal, but really the only thing that it’s going to be signal of is risk on risk off with the central banks at the core of those kinds of decisions.
So from an economic standpoint, there’s definitely something to be said for the pace of improvement here, in terms of the us economy, there continue to be outperforming results. As it pertains to the jobs numbers, we all of course would be reasonable to place some uncertainty bounds around the jobs numbers because of the way that things get calculated, the way that the unemployment rate looks, et cetera, et cetera.
But of course, we’re at a time when unprecedented things are happening when there’s greater movement and the absolute number of jobs than at any other time before. But if we are going to do a basic calculation, one of the things that we need to do is to try to make an apples to apples comparison by looking more at percentages than absolute numbers. Because if you look at job losses and you say, well, the last time that such and such happened, or this is the largest data point since 1929, or going back to other periods of economic decline on any one of these measurements, you have to make sure that we’re doing things in a proper way, comparing growth to growth percentage to percentage.
Otherwise, you’re just going to end up in a scenario where everything that happens now is going to be the most significant change in previous history. So when you see, Oh, the largest point declines and point gains have all happened relatively recently on a percentage basis, that’s going to be less impactful because, you know, three, 4% off the Dow is now something that’s in the 1000 point range.
Whereas back a couple decades ago that would have represented the much more significant change, but this is not to downplay the significance of the environment that we’re in. And certainly not to say that everything is ultimately more solid from a market structure standpoint than might have appeared. I think that a lot is going to depend on the continued reactions of different jurisdictions to the perceived increase in cases and leaving aside the way that these things are measured in the various anecdotal reports.
What I’m finding more interesting is as cases go up and deaths continue to flatten, we’re seeing the mortality rate of the virus decrease significantly as well. And this is part of the problem with these metrics. You’re not going to have a full picture until you get much deeper into things. And this of course presents significant policy challenges. And when we find ourselves in these sorts of circumstances, where being in the weeds is almost an exercise in pure futility, because there’s no way to unpack everything.
It’s simply a mosaic of a guesswork, even from the standpoint of the experts who are attempting to address these matters, using the best tools that epidemiology has to offer. We just enter a scenario where we are forced into using bigger heuristics and rules of thumb and assessing patterns at a macro level, because we’re simply unable to build a reliable understanding from the ground up.
And that is part of the reason why models can be so catastrophic wrong, particularly in these kinds of scenarios where we’re dealing with exponential growth and decay things that we are not necessarily hardwired to gravitate towards when we’re performing a quantitative analysis, at least in the back of our minds, we just don’t do a good job of predicting when that’s the kind of environment that we’re in. So the big picture question is, do we believe what we see around us, or do we believe what is being fed to us through media of all forms, media, social media, et cetera, and where people’s understanding and focus is, is going to drive a lot of the narrative here and we’re entering into an extremely high stakes period.
But I think it’s worth thinking about what the prototypical quote unquote average American is seeing. I think they are seeing greater levels of general concern about the potential for the country to descend into violence or disorderly conduct, et cetera. And they have demonstrated this feeling this tendency by going out and purchasing firearms and exercising their second amendment rights.
So I think that’s undeniable that in balance, people are more concerned about a lack of safety and a danger in society. And following that train of thought, there are key risks to safety in the form of violent protests, not peaceful, but violent also in the form of elected officials, doing things to impede the appropriate application of law and order.
You have people calling for disbanding police and disbanding, entire institutions, not talking about reforms, but rather radical revolutionary statements. And for the average American, they are more interested in preserving the status quo than in tearing everything down and attempting to rebuild. Now that isn’t to say that that’s 95% of people, but it’s a significant amount enough to win any electoral majority in the context of a nationwide elections.
So where does this put us? It puts us in a situation where like always there are going to be competing narratives about who gets the blame, who is responsible ultimately for this circumstance of people feeling afraid, or at the very least concerned, concerned enough to take action, to ensure their safety. And that’s a challenge to unpack because it requires you to take a position about the demographics in society.
And again, it’s a, it’s something that you can’t just try to get at using the tools of pure reason alone. We have to understand the ideology and the worldviews and the dynamics that are at play here. We have to know how everyone is thinking more or less, at least in certain categories. So when we try to unpack this, you have the idea that, well, either this is the fault of the people who are in the streets or in the local governments who are making decisions, or this is the fault of the macro institutions dating back.
As long as you’d like, depending on how seriously you take the perspectives of critical race theory and systemic racism that, that begins and ends with just the general structure of society and institutions, and is coalesced in a focus on the white house in particular on president Trump. So there are definitely two sides here. And the question is, are the people who want to preserve safety, even those who want to advance causes of justice and want to see the justice system function properly and to see people not being killed in cold blood when they should be given their day in court, even if they have had an altercation with the law, but who also want to see police officers and law enforcement have the ability to protect inappropriate situations, not just their communities, but themselves as a mechanism, we need to proper enforcement there.
So there are many people who are in a concern state when they look at people, what, for all intents and purposes, what seems to be lawfully, exercising their rights to protect their own property and to behave responsibly. And yet you see activists in the form of local and district and state sort of prosecutorial personnel who are willing to bring charges against police officers and against everyday citizens in circumstances where clearly, if things go up to the Supreme court, that you would see any action taken against them overturned, but it feels as if more and more that people are being used as pawns and being used as props in situations where a message is being sent, or at least attempted to be sent in virtue of the response to these things.
So it’s about the signaling and the positioning here. And we’re dealing with a scenario where the ideology of revolution has at its core, a willingness to have a moving target, just a constantly meandering goalpost that will then set its sights on one thing or another, and simply ravage it until another target pops up in, in the radar.
So what do we make of society at a time like this? On one hand, there is the argument that goes that people, when they are fearful will find themselves in a circumstance where they do not render any opposition, because it’s too costly. It’s too painful for them to Mount any kind of opposition, either to a legal system or to an outrage mob or anything else to defend their home, their family, their business, et cetera.
But there’s another school of thought that says that this kind of fear and intimidation tactic has pushed on one of the last, if not the last straws of the sensible well-meaning hearts of Americans who want things to be made better and who don’t see active revolution and the overthrow of American institutions as a desirable thing, or even the means to an appropriate end.
And I think it’s worth understanding that even though the Overton window has shifted in terms of a definition of what kind of positions are on the right, and what kind of positions are on the left in the, in the course of the past five, 10, 15, 20 years, you have seen a scenario where the quote unquote acceptable range of positions on behalf of the kind of platforms and voices that aim to represent the core of America.
We’re talking about mainline traditional media organizations. That center has shifted dramatically to the left. And we have seen movement to the left in terms of a general consensus on a variety of different issues. But there is a sense to which if you need to move the Overton window and you try to do it too fast, then the entire operation collapses and you get a reaction in the opposite direction.
And I think that that scenario is if not demonstrably happening, it’s at the very least on the table, there are, there are people who are everyday Americans who simply want safety for their children. They don’t want the police to be pulled back because they understand that that opens the door to crime and violent crime and the needless destruction of lives and families. The, the incidents of homicide in New York, this spike is not an accident is the result of policies that had an extremely predictable result.
It is not incidental. It’s not just something that seemed to happen despite our best efforts. It’s a deliberate result. And ultimately the question is, is it possible to render an appropriate sense of justice here for the families of people who have died needlessly. And this applies whether it’s at the hands of a law enforcement officer, or if it’s at the hands of a citizen.
And so who is in control of these policies and what will the reaction be? And it’s very easy to say, well, if New York, ALEKS DeBlasio, again, as mayor or someone of a similar variety, then they deserve what they get. But that kind of attitude is really representing something that has become too jaded because we’re talking about people’s lives here. We’re talking about families, we’re talking about innocent people being gunned down in the streets, because there is no accountability or at least much less.
So how does all of this impact our economy? It’s going to create a situation where turmoil exists, but that consensus for common sense can form. And what we’ve been saying for some time here is that people are now more aware than ever. And the optics are such that it’s very easy for people to say, I’m not totally sure what’s going on, but I definitely don’t want that with the, that being disorder and fear in the streets and the taking over of private and public property by groups who are revolutionary in nature.
And so we we’ve ended up in a situation where there are multiple different points of pressure and contention, and the stakes are extremely high. I am not of the mindset that the resources are able to be deployed in an effective way to actually carry out a revolution at this time, if we were in a different situation where there were different groups of people in power, that assessment would change.
And so there is a significant importance to what we’re going through right now. So this is where we have to pay attention. We have to be vigilant from a spiritual perspective, and we have to be cognizant economically of what is happening and what can happen depending on the way the different scenarios play out. But it’s hard for me to imagine at the end of the day, that an attempt to initiate a revolution, as bold as what is being proposed by many influential figures in academia, in media, and even in politics, that, that isn’t an Overton window stretch.
That is representative not of the methodical long March through the institutions mechanisms that have been built up over the course of many decades, with a high degree of patience and tactics and effectiveness. It’s much easier for me to look at that and to say, this is an act of attempting to seize a moment, an act of tactical desperation and something that is guaranteed to promote a backlash from the American citizenry, people who just want to live in peace with their neighbors of all colors, backgrounds, stripes, et cetera.
It’s a bizarre scenario that we’re living through. And it’s so easy to look at every single news source and every single headline and say, well, this is spiraling out of control. No, that it’s not just you, who is seeing that it’s people who haven’t been paying attention to it before, and people who are looking at that. And just like you were saying, I don’t, I don’t like this. And then if they dare to speak up about these sorts of things, regardless of the level of sophistication and nuance, then there is waiting for them, intense scrutiny and intense shaming, and an attempt by a literal mob to go after them.
And people see this happening to others, and they will say, yeah, I don’t want that to happen to me. So I’m not really going to be too vocal about this, but they’re also going to be in a position to say, this is not what I actually want for my country. I’m not a racist, I’m not a white suit supremacists, but I don’t want to see the police defunded. It would be good to have better standards and higher quality of justice in a variety of different means.
But I don’t agree with, with these pushes, this is, this is a bridge too far. And so with the lack of cordiality, the lack of civility, the lack of assumption of good intentions that is now settling in, you have number one, a difference in viewpoint in terms of the way things are measured externally versus what people are believing. But you also have a scenario where enough people may end up as the pendulum begins to swing back because of a tactical mistake with the Overton window, you may have enough people simply saying, no, I don’t, I don’t care what you call me.
I know that I know that that’s not the case and enough is enough. And that kind of positioning is required for us to understand when we try and assess the dynamics of how things are going to play out economically, because it’s the people, the decision makers at the local and the state level, in addition to the federal who are having a significant influence here, and you could very well see certain areas because of the policies that are taken on, have a much worse economic outcome than other jurisdictions that take a different set of policies.
The lines in the sand are growing deeper and deeper and more clear as the battle lines are drawn. As people on one hand advocate for revolution. On the other hand, people advocate for a return to some semblance of normalcy and the dialogue will continue. And the chaos and the conflict will swirl, but as we try to make decisions with an eye towards understanding what’s going to happen, we should understand that to a very real extent.
The outcome is binary. We are either going to see a dramatic move towards a society designed by leftist and in this day and age, that means people who are not so subtly straddling the fence between socialism and communism and couching it in the terms of critical race theory, environmentalist, et cetera, it’s either that outcome or hopefully a constitutional one that many people would disagree about what the alternative is, but we need to see the promises of the constitution fulfilled, and we need to understand our values.
And we need to build a society that is not captured by corruption. There is oppression. There is hardship, there is grievance, but right now we’re not in a situation where that can be resolved simply by people shaking hands. There has to be a clear mandate in one direction or the other. And I think that’s what we’re going to get, because even if we don’t get a clear mandate from a silent majority or a revolutionary push, then we’re going to find a situation where there’s a split.
And then the tension on something like that will call into question what we should do. Given the extraordinary discrepancy, the widening Gulf between the different cultures that are represented in these United States of America. So there are plenty of things to watch, plenty of things to have concerns about. But I think if you go up to 30,000 feet and you look at trying to understand the dynamic of an every day, American watching what’s going on and maybe paying more attention to it than usual for the first time, I think you understand that the attempt to shift the Overton window has bitten off a bit more than it can chew.
And I think what will, what will happen next will be indicative of that. So, thanks again for joining us. This has been Stephen men King for on the objective, and we’ll see you next time.