Welcome back to The Amateur Society for a discussion of probability and how we handle the uncertainty of future events by hedging our bets. Have you ever said that something was possible, likely, or almost certain? Are their actual probabilities associated with those statements, or are we just guessing? It’s a genuine challenge to unpack even relatively simple probabilities, so we have to use our instincts honed by experience in complex situations. Algorithms can perform better than humans at assessing probability, but everything tends to break down when rare events are considered. Thanks again for joining us on The Amateur Society!

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