Approximate spot prices
Greetings fellow amateurs,
A short week for the markets didn’t stop many narratives from shifting drastically. The headline is of course the Mother Of All Bombs dropped on ISIS in Afghanistan by President Trump. This set off cascades of everything from World War III proclamations to a bit of old fashioned rah rah in various patriot circles.
It seems abundantly clear at this point that either everything is spiraling hopelessly out of control or there is an agreement behind the scenes to scratch the current institutional structure and enter a new paradigm. The internal witness of my spirit gives me a hunch that the former is on the table and that multipolar cooperation exists because a deal has been struck. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean that there is a zero probability of intense uncertainty and chaos.
Indeed, both of those scenarios call for substantial disruption before, during, and after the systemic reset. In my view, that is the best of all the options in front of us. Continue to stay vigilant and prepared.
All is not what it seems. There is either absolutely no subtext to the mixed messaging or there is a plan in place to destabilize the current institutional architecture and manage perceptions so that the swamp rightly gets the blame. In any rate, our primary hope must be in the Lord Jesus Christ. He is the answer. He is risen. Invite Him into your life for the first time if you have never been born again. If you are totally sure of your salvation, then press in even further.
Tomorrow isn’t promised.
Gold began to look even shinier this week. The generally ascribed causes were geopolitical uncertainty and Trump’s comments about how the dollar needs to be weaker. $1,300 is definitely in play, and a catalyst over the weekend could provide the ammunition for the excuse for the market manipulators to move gold higher. It was some tough sledding buying gold on the way down following the election, but 2017 has been a strong year for the metal. However, something smells a bit fishy…
Meet $JNUG, the 3x bullish ETF for junior gold miners. Here’s the theory: when gold goes up, the gold miners should move up as well – usually more than gold itself. The junior miners typically move more than the gold miners overall, and this ETF is supposed to return 3x the upside – that applies to the downside as well. This isn’t for the faint of heart, but do you see what I see? Gold is at the highs for the year, but the junior miners – which should move with gold in greater magnitude – are still almost 50% below their 2017 highs. I haven’t seen a sufficient explanation for this, so here are some options. Are the manipulators now stepping on the miners more than the metal itself because they are running out of ammunition and are in the 9th inning? Are the miners just total trash now? Are they signalling that the rally in gold is fake? Or – most importantly – is this an incredible opportunity as the miners have to play catch up? I don’t know the exact answer, but $JNUG had a massive run last year with gold and I don’t have a good explanation why that pattern shouldn’t repeat.
Well, we recovered from that waterfall smash rather quickly. The strong weekly close makes it look like silver is back in business to continue the uptrend – unless more unexplained smashes are waiting in the wings. They likely are, but many commentators are now looking at a scenario where the smashes will be unable to hold it together. Clif High’s predictive linguistics work points toward some potentially interesting developments before we get to June. I’ll reiterate what I’ve said for quite some time: silver is historically cheap and is potentially the best deal on the planet in the face of the inevitable systemic reset. Do your homework, and if you have conviction in the thesis then grab some physical for yourself, hang on tight, and don’t even bother to watch the price action if you find it emotionally distressing. If you do I think you’ll thank those who brought it to your attention, and if the thesis changes I’ll certainly let you know.
Amidst another week of chaos bitcoin has emerged as a paragon of stability around the $1,200 area. This doesn’t mean that all the volatility is gone and that it can’t move, but keep taking advantage of buying opportunities on the dips to the trendline. If you can get it below $1,000 then you’ll be in luck. If you don’t have any, then now would be a good time to start with a small position and begin to watch. My price alerts are at $1,300 on the upside and $1,050 and $1,000 on the downside. Bitcoin also gives me something to watch over the weekends, but of course that’s not part of the investment rationale. Maybe I’m already checked out, so let’s wrap it up.
The word that I got in my spirit in prayer following the Syria strike last week was ‘watch’. That’s just what I’ll continue to do. There are many fascinating narratives that are beginning to crystallize amidst the chaos. Don’t get stuck in a geopolitical paradigm. The only sure foundation is that of Jesus Christ and the Word of God. He is risen!
Disclaimer: These are one amateur’s fallible opinions. Holding any asset is risky, so do your own research and make your own investment decisions.